Thursday, April 30, 2009

A Word About Expectations

Does the world need expectations?

Think about it. If you are like me, I'm sure you see examples of people failing to meet expectations all around you. Maybe you see someone on public transit who is unecessarily rude to another passenger. Maybe you see a co-worker dropping the ball yet again. Maybe your parents are too involved or uninvolved in your life. Maybe your new or existing love interest failed to do something, or didn't do something quite right. Or, maybe you yourself failed to live up to a tenent of your life.

The point is that every day is filled with potential opportunities to observe, first hand, how expectations don't get met.

The natural counter to the above is that each day also presents abundant opportunities to see expectations being met. But, the question becomes, are the two types of opportunity equivalent. To that question, I would say absolutely not!

When an expectation is not met there is a notable sense of dissapointment - it may be small, but it might also be huge. The dissapointment may be most pronounced when it applies to ourself, when we fail to do as we think we should.

On the flipside, when an expectation is met, there is little joy, pleasure, or positive reflection. After all, the behaviour was expected, or put another way, it was the baseline of what we were willing to accept.

So, in essence, we have structured a scenario that at best keeps us in a neutral state (when people meet our expectations), but is heavily sided toward being negative (when expectations are not met).

So what to do? Do we simply remove expectations of ourselves and others from the equation of life? No, I don't think so. The result would be pure anarchy. To varying degrees, we all modify our behaviour according to what others deem acceptable and in this way, maybe our eccentricities are curtailed. Whether this is good or bad is open to debate, but I would suggest that within reason it is a good thing. In a way, expectations are a means of ascribing accountability to one another. Were we without them, we would have no accountability to others, and the world would truly be dog eat dog.

So if living with expectations is a huge challenge, and divorcing ourselves of them is not in the cards, what are we to do?

I think the solution is two fold. Firstly, do not act so quickly to scorn if an expectation is not met. By and large people aren't out to dissapoint intentionally. You might find some people that are, but I would suggest that they are an aberration, and not representative of the norm. Appreciate that there are likely reasons for the failure and that the person may in fact be struggling with meeting differing sets of expectations, perhaps those of yours and their own.

The other key element in all of this of course is to articulate what your expectations are of others. After all, how can others be expected to know what u expect, especially if your expectations are appreciably different from their own and/or of the people they most often associate with. Of course this is much more easily done with people you interact with often and is more difficult with the stranger on the street.

So, at the end of the day, I think the key is not to get too hung up on expectations, and to share the ones that truly are of consequence to you. But try to make your list of expectations a small one indeed, for the best of all concerned.

That is my two cents for the day.

Friday, April 10, 2009

The Madness -- It Came, it went.

Every March, one of the greatest sports spectacles on the planet takes place – the men’s NCAA Division 1 basketball tournament.

For the uninitiated, this tournament consists of 64 teams that compete in a single elimination format that ultimately leads to the crowning of the national champion. Teams are grouped into four divisions and within each, the sixteen teams are ranked 1 through 16. Although the rankings (or seedings) theoretically give you a sense of how the teams will do, it is rare that the four #1 seeds advance to the Final Four – please disregard 2008.

Where this tournament differs most from the pro competition, in my opinion, is the fact that these athletes are hungrier. I once hear a stat that 1 in 5 US college players go on to professional ball. That means that for many this tournament is their chance to show case their skills and get to the gravy train that is professional ball. Keep in mind that even making the tournament is an accomplishment as there are far more than 64 division 1 teams in the US. As such, these guys put their everything into the game and leave NOTHING behind. For many, there simply will be no next year, no second chance, no Mulligans!

This year I was on vacation when the time came to make my tournament picks for our company office pool. As such, I had exactly one hour to do my research and make my picks after a day of touring southern cali. It is difficult for us north of the 49th to track college hoops by watching team as TV coverage is scant at best. Nonetheless, I barreled into the business centre at the hotel I was staying at, printed out my bracket, and made my picks. The final result is shown in the attached image.

Amazingly enough, I made some excellent picks. Through the first round I selected 27/32 matchup correctly, and carried on to choose three out of the final four teams. MSU over Louisville was a key pick that proved to come true. Of course, I was blindsided as well. I didn’t expect Pitt to lose prior to the Final Four, and certainly did not see Oklahoma dismantling Syracuse with surgeon-like efficiency – I still have nightmare about that game.

Ultimately, though, there was just no stopping #1 North Carolina. Michael Jordan’s alma matter represented in fine fashion disposing of a solid MSU team in a final game that was anything but in question.

In the end, I was lucky enough to lead my corporate office pool wire to wire, giving me a 1000% return on my initial wage – nice!

The one knock I have against the tournament is simply this. In advance of it, the anticipation builds. During it, the excitement is intense all consuming. But, all too soon, the tournament is over, and we are left wanting more, sadly relegated to waiting another eleven months to repeat the process all over again. Before we know it, we are left watching CBS’s famous “One Shining Moment” video ( ), and reliving the brief, but intense tourney, in a sub two minute clip.
As this year’s tourney has come and gone, I leave you with my two cents on the tourney:

· Blake Griffon is a powerhouse and will be an excellent NBA player. I can’t think of the last time I saw someone jump high enough to graze the side of their face on the backboard foam – and the fact that he is ½ white is all the more amazing! This isn’t to suggest that white men can’t jump, but rather, that as a white man with a vertical that has seen better days, my hats are off to Blake.
·Tyler Hansbrough looks possessed when he plays– his eyes just might pop out of his head one day. Either that, or he might burst into tears at any moment – not sure which. It is also funny to me that while he is undoubtedly a basketball phenom and will likely to be named NCAA’s college player of the year, I can honestly say that in looking at him, he doesn’t look like a baller to me. Sure, he is 6’9” which naturally gives him a bball bend, but he almost looks too physically large, and doesn’t look super athletic to me. Prior to seeing him play I would actually guess him to slow and uncoordinated.
·When was the last time player benches were sunken below the floor level as they were in the final games?
·How great was it that Obama filled out a tournament bracket and made is such a public event. Can you imagine, even for second, W doing that? Genius, I tell you, genius. And, not only that, but he had the vision to pick UNC to win --- what a leader!

Until next year, I leave you with my favourite moment of the tourney:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otKxYdQVpew&feature=related

Booyah!


Pet Peeves - Group Think

So, it is time to vent. One thing that annoys me to no end is Group Think. Why is it that people have a penchant for acting like lemmings? Is the concept of individual, and dare I say, prospective thought, a thing of the past?

You see examples of this all around you, but what has brought it to my attention yet again was a seminar I recently attended. Noting an advertisement and happening to have a free night, I elected to attend a seminar on stock trading by Robert Kiyosaki of Rich Dad, Poor Dad fame. Having read the book and concluding that he had some valid, albeit not overly complex, points, I figured attending couldn’t hurt.

For those of you considering attending such a seminar, don’t. I will give you the entire message in the following bullets:

Successful trading is achieved by:

a) Using fundamental analysis to pick your companies
b) Using technical analysis to time your buying and selling points (they are big fans of the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence, the Stochastic, and the Moving Average itself).
c) Using software to facilitate both a) and b)

Fair enough, nothing really alarming about the messaging here, all pretty solid. But, then the pitch follows. Pay $500 for a course to learn how to use the Rich Dad, Poor Dad proprietary software tools (can’t imagine you get an education on anything but how to click here, then there), and then pay $40 per month to get market data from eSignal that fuels the software.
Maybe it is a good deal for some, I suppose that is a matter of perspective. But what amazes me about the situation was the tricks incorporated into the presentation that seemed to successfully up the urgency for the call to action (i.e buy).

Firstly, they put out insufficient seats for the number of people registered. Then, of course, they have to add seats during the presentation, thereby conveying the idea of an intense demand. Did I mention that despite having registered online, my name was NOT on the list? Maybe an innocent mistake, then again, maybe not.

The speaker then builds rapport with audience by eliciting from them via the use of inane questions such as “who wouldn’t like a return of 1000% in these tough economic times”, to which the audience coos “yes, yes”. Honestly, what is that? I swear he could of asked if $10 more valuable than $5 and people would have chimmed in just as enthusiastically.

He also leveraged the public’s familiarity with Warren Buffets wealth to make points in favour of his pitch (i.e. use Fundamental Analysis), but then proceed to slam the Buy and Hold philosophy that gave Warren his riches. Amazingly, nobody challenged this notable inconsistency.

He throws out random technical terms to the audience as a means of connecting with them and demonstrating his knowledge of the topic at hand. “Candlesticks”, “Shoulders”, “RSI”, etc. Uhmmm, did anyone notice that he kept saying “I don’t have time to go into this tonight due to time constraints”? People, please, are you mere puppets?

Near the end of the session he suggests that anyone interested in signing up for the 3-day course can move to the back of the room and sign up, as space is limited. Apparently, there was nothing the speaker could do in terms of adding additional sessions to the city’s calendar. Are you kidding me, Rich Dad, Poor Dad has a business model that has no flexibility to adjust course offerings to meet the demand? Come on people, give me a break!!! In fairness, this was a brilliant use of social proof! He prefaced the call to sign up by saying “for those of you convinced that this is right for you; if you know you need this in your life”. In so doing, he subtly suggests that these people are more together than those who opt not to sign up for the course. How many people wanna bet that a good number of those people signing up for the course were plants?

In the end then, what is my beef? Am I upset with Rich Dad, Poor Dad? Not really. They are a business and have a sales system that effectively uses weapons of influence to get people to buy their services. While they are certainly manipulating people that aren’t aware of it, I sadly don’t expect much more from a business. At the end of the day, business is about taking a product or service to a market and getting them to purchase. We would all like to think that our decisions are free of external influence, but in reality, is not the whole focus of business schools to get people to par their money in exchange for a product or service? If you concede that, you will hopefully also concede that there are few limits as to what they will do to make that happen, manipulation included.

Truthfully, my disappointment lies with the human race, and in particular, with the fact that so many of us are susceptible to these types of games. True, we do concede to a house advantage whenever we attend such a seminar, but nonetheless, I would hope for better for us. Perhaps, my message really boils down to the following:

·Remain objective in your thinking and do not assume that everything presented to you is factual and accurate
·Believe in yourself, and do not assume that the people who are acting around you are somehow more intelligent, or have figured something out.
·Realize that it is rare in life that you have to buy or do something right this minute and that no other opportunity such as this will come along again in your life. Leave that type of thinking for matters of love, not for transaction based decisions.

VB Out……